A commercially disciplined agribusiness investment anchored in production growth, cooperative aggregation, and centralised processing — achieving profitability through volume efficiency and institutional stability.
Six structural advantages that make this project commercially viable, institutionally bankable, and strategically positioned in Nigeria's rice market.
Nigeria consumes over 8 million tonnes of rice annually with domestic supply structurally below demand. Southern Nigeria is particularly deficit. All projected production is assumed fully absorbed each year — no market development risk.
Full value chain control from paddy production to wholesale distribution eliminates margin leakage to intermediaries, ensures quality consistency, and enables cost discipline at every stage — protecting investor returns.
Driver-based projections with 4.5t/ha yield assumptions, 65% milling recovery, and 3% p.a. price growth. Conservative relative to market benchmarks — projections are stress-testable and lender-credible.
Staged development from 25ha to 200ha limits early capital exposure. Learning is embedded before scale. Debt service is aligned to cash flow growth from Year 2, reducing repayment stress.
Cooperative structure embeds community co-ownership — providing social licence to operate, reducing land dispute risk, and ensuring reliable labour mobilisation critical to agribusiness execution.
Site selected, engineering designed, governance instruments in place, land arrangements structured. This is not a concept — it is a bankable platform ready for capital deployment and immediate development.
| Metric | Year 1 | Year 2 | Year 3 | Year 4 | Year 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Cultivated Area (ha) | 25 | 100 | 175 | 175 | 200 |
| Paddy Output (tonnes) | 225 | 900 | 1,575 | 1,575 | 1,800 |
| Milled Rice (tonnes) | 146 | 585 | 1,024 | 1,024 | 1,170 |
| Bags Produced (50kg) | 2,925 | 11,700 | 20,475 | 20,475 | 23,400 |
| Revenue (₦) | 138.9m | 556m | 1.03bn | 1.03bn | 1.25bn |
| EBITDA (₦) | 13.6m | 240m | 446.4m | 446.4m | 558.7m |
| Net Surplus/(Deficit) (₦) | (324.8m) | (154m) | 15.2m | 85m | 212.2m |
| Closing Cash (₦) | 2.03bn | 1.75bn | 1.41bn | 1.28bn | 1.25bn |
| Member Dividends (₦) | — | — | 4.6m | 25.5m | 63.7m |
| Returns Per Hectare (₦) | 2.02m | 2.10m | 2.25m | 2.45m | 2.60m |
Revenue and EBITDA grow in lockstep with cultivated area and mill utilisation — reflecting genuine scale efficiency.
A blended financing model that minimises early debt burden, aligns repayment with cash flows, and provides investors with a structured entry into a growing enterprise.
Government and development finance institution grants allocated to non-revenue infrastructure in Year 1 — reducing the commercial debt burden during the establishment phase.
Structured long-term debt introduced in phases to fund milling equipment and expansion works. Repayment aligned to cash flow growth — Year 2 positive operating cash flow supports early service.
Equity contributed by Tantita Security Services Nigeria Limited and co-investors for land preparation, vehicles, and IT systems — providing first-loss capital protection for debt providers.
The project breaks even at a volume that is less than 8% of installed mill capacity — providing significant safety margin against production shortfalls.
The mill is designed for 2,500 tonnes per year but Year 1 production is only 146 tonnes. This deliberate under-utilisation in early years reduces operational stress. Break-even requires only 3,790 bags — achievable well within Year 1 production.
As cultivated area grows and mill utilisation increases from 5.9% in Year 1 to 46.8% in Year 5, fixed costs are absorbed across rising throughput — reducing cost per bag from ₦43,862 to ₦30,586 while prices grow at 3% p.a.
Base Case prices of ₦47,500/bag (Y1) are conservative relative to prevailing domestic wholesale benchmarks. This provides a built-in buffer against price pressure while maintaining positive EBITDA from Year 1.
Profitability is achieved through production scale and mill efficiency — not speculation on rice price increases. This makes financial projections more predictable and lender-credible.
Every material risk is identified, quantified, and addressed through structural design, operational protocols, or contingency planning — making this a commercially disciplined investment.
We welcome conversations with equity investors, debt providers, development finance institutions, and strategic partners. Request our full information memorandum to begin due diligence.