The Investment Opportunity

A commercially disciplined agribusiness investment anchored in production growth, cooperative aggregation, and centralised processing — achieving profitability through volume efficiency and institutional stability.

₦1.25bn
Year 5 Revenue
₦558.7m
Year 5 EBITDA
Year 3
Profitability
₦3.42bn
Total CAPEX

A Compelling Investment Case

Six structural advantages that make this project commercially viable, institutionally bankable, and strategically positioned in Nigeria's rice market.

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Structural Market Demand

Nigeria consumes over 8 million tonnes of rice annually with domestic supply structurally below demand. Southern Nigeria is particularly deficit. All projected production is assumed fully absorbed each year — no market development risk.

🔗

Vertically Integrated Model

Full value chain control from paddy production to wholesale distribution eliminates margin leakage to intermediaries, ensures quality consistency, and enables cost discipline at every stage — protecting investor returns.

📐

Conservative Financial Model

Driver-based projections with 4.5t/ha yield assumptions, 65% milling recovery, and 3% p.a. price growth. Conservative relative to market benchmarks — projections are stress-testable and lender-credible.

🏗️

Phased Capital Deployment

Staged development from 25ha to 200ha limits early capital exposure. Learning is embedded before scale. Debt service is aligned to cash flow growth from Year 2, reducing repayment stress.

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Community Ownership & Social Licence

Cooperative structure embeds community co-ownership — providing social licence to operate, reducing land dispute risk, and ensuring reliable labour mobilisation critical to agribusiness execution.

🏛️

Implementation-Ready Platform

Site selected, engineering designed, governance instruments in place, land arrangements structured. This is not a concept — it is a bankable platform ready for capital deployment and immediate development.

5-Year Financial Performance

Metric Year 1 Year 2 Year 3 Year 4 Year 5
Cultivated Area (ha) 25100175175200
Paddy Output (tonnes) 2259001,5751,5751,800
Milled Rice (tonnes) 1465851,0241,0241,170
Bags Produced (50kg) 2,92511,70020,47520,47523,400
Revenue (₦) 138.9m556m1.03bn1.03bn1.25bn
EBITDA (₦) 13.6m240m446.4m446.4m558.7m
Net Surplus/(Deficit) (₦) (324.8m)(154m)15.2m85m212.2m
Closing Cash (₦) 2.03bn1.75bn1.41bn1.28bn1.25bn
Member Dividends (₦) 4.6m25.5m63.7m
Returns Per Hectare (₦) 2.02m2.10m2.25m2.45m2.60m
Break-Even Volume
3,790 bags
<8% of installed mill capacity
Price/Bag (Y1)
₦47,500
Conservative vs. wholesale benchmark
Unit Cost Trend
₦43,862 → ₦30,586
Cost/bag declining Y1 to Y5
Margin Expansion
₦3,638 → ₦22,875
Margin per bag growing Y1 to Y5

Visual Financial Trajectory

Revenue and EBITDA grow in lockstep with cultivated area and mill utilisation — reflecting genuine scale efficiency.

Revenue & EBITDA by Year (₦ millions)
₦ millions 0 250 500 750 1,000 1,250 ₦139m ₦556m ₦1.03b ₦1.03b ₦1.25b ₦30m ₦238m ₦450m ₦450m ₦559m Year 1 Year 2 Year 3 Year 4 Year 5
Revenue
EBITDA
EBITDA Margin (Y5)44.7%
Strong margin reflecting volume-driven cost absorption
Mill Utilisation (Y5)46.8%
Substantial headroom for future expansion without new capex
Revenue Growth Y1–Y59x
₦138.9m to ₦1.25bn driven by area expansion
Break-Even vs Capacity7.6%
Only 3,790 bags required — very low operational risk
Cost per Bag Reduction-30%
₦43,862 (Y1) declining to ₦30,586 (Y5)

Funding Structure

A blended financing model that minimises early debt burden, aligns repayment with cash flows, and provides investors with a structured entry into a growing enterprise.

5-Year Capital Allocation

21%
Grants
₦1.0bn
72%
Debt
₦3.4bn
7%
Equity
₦210m
Grants 21%
Debt Facility 72%
Eq 7%
₦4.61bn
Total Funding (5-Year)

🌿 Grant Funding

₦1.0bn

Government and development finance institution grants allocated to non-revenue infrastructure in Year 1 — reducing the commercial debt burden during the establishment phase.

Civil worksIrrigation systemsUtilities

🏦 Long-Term Debt Facility

₦3.4bn

Structured long-term debt introduced in phases to fund milling equipment and expansion works. Repayment aligned to cash flow growth — Year 2 positive operating cash flow supports early service.

Milling equipmentExpansion infrastructureStorage

💼 Equity Investment

₦210m

Equity contributed by Tantita Security Services Nigeria Limited and co-investors for land preparation, vehicles, and IT systems — providing first-loss capital protection for debt providers.

Land vehiclesIT systemsWorking capital

Low Break-Even, High Confidence

The project breaks even at a volume that is less than 8% of installed mill capacity — providing significant safety margin against production shortfalls.

Break-Even Parameters

3,790
Bags/year to break even
7.6%
Of installed mill capacity
2,500t
Annual installed capacity
Year 1
Break-even achievable from

Why Break-Even Is So Low

The mill is designed for 2,500 tonnes per year but Year 1 production is only 146 tonnes. This deliberate under-utilisation in early years reduces operational stress. Break-even requires only 3,790 bags — achievable well within Year 1 production.

Margin Expansion Logic

As cultivated area grows and mill utilisation increases from 5.9% in Year 1 to 46.8% in Year 5, fixed costs are absorbed across rising throughput — reducing cost per bag from ₦43,862 to ₦30,586 while prices grow at 3% p.a.

Conservative Price Assumptions

Base Case prices of ₦47,500/bag (Y1) are conservative relative to prevailing domestic wholesale benchmarks. This provides a built-in buffer against price pressure while maintaining positive EBITDA from Year 1.

Volume-Driven Not Price-Driven

Profitability is achieved through production scale and mill efficiency — not speculation on rice price increases. This makes financial projections more predictable and lender-credible.

Risks & Mitigations

Every material risk is identified, quantified, and addressed through structural design, operational protocols, or contingency planning — making this a commercially disciplined investment.

🌾

Production Risks

Managed
Yield Shortfall: Conservative 4.5t/ha assumption; agronomic protocols; 1 extension officer per 50ha
Flooding: Engineered drainage, controlled bunding, elevated processing structures
Pest/Disease: IPM protocols; certified seed; regular field monitoring
Water Supply: Forcados River with filtration systems; emergency storage reserves
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Market Risks

Low
Price Decline: Conservative pricing well below risk threshold; demand structurally exceeds supply
Demand Weakness: Nigeria consumes 8m+ tonnes annually; all output is <0.015% of national demand
Competition: Direct position in structurally deficit southern market with logistics advantage
Forex Exposure: Domestic-only sales strategy eliminates currency risk entirely
💰

Financial Risks

Managed
Debt Service: Year 2 positive operating cash flow; phased debt introduction aligned to cash growth
Capex Overrun: Detailed engineering designs; contingency allocation; phased deployment
Input Inflation: Cost-linked farmgate pricing; centralised bulk procurement
Liquidity: ₦2.03bn closing cash balance in Year 1 provides significant operating buffer
🛢️

Environmental Risks

Monitored
Oil Contamination: Water intake filtration; regular soil/water testing; rapid spill response planning
Heavy Metals: Soil monitoring programme; remediation planting protocols
Biodiversity: Buffer zones; controlled runoff management; NESREA compliance
Climate Events: Engineered drainage; two-cycle growing reduces single-season exposure
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Social & Community Risks

Low
Land Disputes: Cooperative land pooling; community agreements; legal title structures
Labour Unrest: Cooperative co-ownership aligns farmer incentives with enterprise success
Community Opposition: Embedded social licence via cooperative membership and dividend rights
Grievances: Formal Grievance Redress Mechanism; community liaison officers
⚙️

Operational Risks

Low
Equipment Failure: Preventive maintenance policy; spare parts inventory; equipment insurance
Power Outages: Solar/diesel hybrid power system ensures continuous mill operations
Staff Turnover: Training pipeline and community hiring priority build internal skills pool
Logistics: Waterway and road access; owned transport fleet reduces third-party dependency

Ready to Invest in Nigeria's Rice Future?

We welcome conversations with equity investors, debt providers, development finance institutions, and strategic partners. Request our full information memorandum to begin due diligence.